The Texans were on fire. The off-season acquisitions of stars Steffon Diggs and Danielle Hunter promised to bring the Texans past the divisional round of the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. They were 5-1 with their 41-21 win over the Colts. Then Diggs tore his ACL. Then the Halloween Massacre from the Jets. Then a home loss to the then 2-8 Titans.
Houston entered the power rankings as the sixth best team, but are now struggling to stay ahead of the 6-7 Colts in the race for the AFC South title. An 8-5 record doesn’t provide much cushion considering that the Texans will play three games over a 10-day span following their bye week. Two of those matchups include the Ravens and Chiefs, the two best teams in the AFC last year. So how did these so-called “Contenders” drop to the middle of the pack?
Preseason Blow: Defensive losses to the Vikings, Chargers
Despite obtaining pro-bowl defensive end Hunter from the Vikings, Houston lost youth and depth with the departures of defensive end and outside linebacker Jonathan Greenard and linebacker Blake Cashman. With both of them headed to Minnesota, Hunter can replace Greenard to work with fellow edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., but the shallow linebacker roster will feel Cashman’s absence. The loss doesn’t stop there for Houston, with veteran linebacker Denzel Perryman who also departed for the Chargers.
To make matters worse, the already-stressed defensive locker room lost another: Christian Harris to a calf injury in the preseason. Harris, who has been out since August, was a strong facet of last year’s team with 101 total tackles, a forced fumble and 2 sacks. Since the injury, linebackers Henry To’oTo’o and Al Shaheez-Shahir stepped up as two of Houston’s main defensive signal callers. Shaheez-Shahir has played well in the role so far, barring one issue that may have had major repercussions.
Season Blow: Steffon Diggs
Houston’s biggest move in the 2024 offseason was arguably the signing of free agent Steffon Diggs. The former Bills superstar had had just under 10,000 receiving yards and over 65 touchdowns before signing with the Texans. With an impressive resume, including two All-Pro selections, four Pro Bowl appearances and the 2020 NFL receiving yards and receptions leader, Diggs was poised to be a top receiving weapon. However, wide receiver Nico Collins’ impressive start to the season left Diggs pushed to the side.
Quarterback CJ Stroud continued to demonstrate his chemistry with Collins as Collins put up multiple 100-yard games, emerging as the Texan’s primary receiving weapon. In nine games, Diggs never topped 100 yards. Things took a turn for the worse when Diggs tore his ACL in week nine of the NFL in a game against the Indianapolis Colts. The once-remarkable piece’s season ended early with just 47 receptions, 496 yards and 3 touchdowns, quite short of his expectations for the year.
Season Blow: CJ Stroud’s sophomore slump
Houston, we have a problem.
A sophomore slump: when a second-year player fails to live up the expectations that they set in their rookie year, may have hit the Texans. After a breakout rookie season, including a Pro Bowl and playoff victory for the star Stroud, his successes seem to have slowed down. Some of these reasons are more obvious like major injuries to Diggs and Collins, which have forced Stroud to rely on less talented receivers and in turn less production. Others are less visible, such as the adjustments that defensive coordinators’ have made throughout the offseason to account for Stroud. Most notably, more teams are implementing the use of two high-safeties to his ability to throw deep balls to his receivers.
After throwing for 23 touchdowns and for a league low of 5 interceptions in 2023, CJ Stroud has started to descend back to Earth. Within 13 games, Stroud already has thrown nine interceptions. Though not exceptionally concerning, he should still face some scrutiny especially in the Texans’ two one-possession losses to Detroit and Tennessee. Despite a 23-7 lead, Stroud threw two picks in the second half contributing to an embarrassing 26-23 loss as Texans failed to score in the second half. In another embarrassing loss, Stroud threw two interceptions against the then 2-8 Titans and a game-losing safety to drop the Texans to 7-5. Against the Packers Stroud only had 86 passing yards, his lowest number of the season.
Fortunately, Stroud’s slump is minor. He is 10th in the NFL for passing yards with 3,117 yards and already has 15 passing touchdowns going into week 15. He has kept the Texans well into playoff contention, treading above the rest of the AFC South with a two win differential over the 6-7 Indianapolis. However, it needs to be seen if this slump grows as the playoffs approach.
Season Blow: Second-half failures
The Texans are two different teams. The first is a team with a fiery offensive and a stout defense in the first half. The second half team is known for penalties, punts and blown leads. The Texans currently rank sixth in first half points scored with an average of 14. In the second half, they’re ranked twenty third. It’s hard to maintain leads and make comebacks when your team only scores 9.7 points in the second half. For reference, last year, Houston ranked fourteenth with an average of 10.9 points in second half points.
This inability to score points after halftime has been the main source of all of the Texans’ losses. In three of their five losses, they’ve held the lead going into half time. They were up 19-14 over the Packers, 7-0 over the Jets and a whopping 23-7 over the Lions before losing all three games. In their five losses, their second half points for and against ratio was 28:87. That mean’s in all their losses, their opponents have collectively managed to outscore them by over 300%.
Losses and poor performance can also be attributed to penalties, though. The Texans are one of the league’s most penalized teams, coming in with 59.2 penalty yards per game and 28th overall. For reference, the team with the least penalty yards, the Jacksonville Jaguars, only have 39.6 penalty yards per game. If the Texans want to go all the way, they need to focus more on their second half offense and cleaning up penalties overall.
Future Woe: Al Shaheez-Shahir
The most recent hot topic of the sports world, Shaheez-Shahir came under heavy fire for his late hit against Trevor Lawrence on Dec. 1. The Texans would go on to win the game, but they paid a heavy price. After the game, the NFL gave Shaheez-Shahir a three-game suspension. Calls from across the sports world have called for one game bans and full season suspensions, but it looks like the current charge will stand. Despite an appeal by the Texans, the NFL stuck with their suspension, leaving the Texans without one of their starting linebackers for their next three games.
Shaheez-Shahir has been a core part of the team this year, recording 68 total tackles, 2 sacks, 7 tackles for loss and 2 forced fumbles across 10 games. With upcoming games against the Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs the Texans will have to quickly adjust to account for this new setback in their already-shallow linebacker roster. If the Texans can come out winning at least two of these three games, then they will be set to make the playoffs.
