The Final Four is here. The one seeds have been dominating the competition. Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston have been quite a step ahead of every other team. People who selected to take the chalk are celebrating their brackets, including me.
Since my bracket was so successful, I’m obviously the most qualified person in all of college basketball for you to listen to. So here are my predictions for the last weekend of the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
Duke rolls over Houston
Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars have been nothing short of great. Their statement win over Tennessee established themselves as the strongest defensive team in the country, highlighted by holding Tennessee to only 15 points in the first half. Houston has now won 17 straight games, including a full sweep in the Big 12 tournament. However, Houston’s offensive consistency has been eye-drawing. They almost lost to eighth seed Gonzaga in the round of 32, only winning by five points, and they eked out a 62-60 win over Purdue in the final second of the Sweet Sixteen. Cougars leading scorer L.J. Cryer has been woefully inconsistent — 15, 30, 5 and 17 across his four tournament games. Cryer will need to play his best basketball to beat a loaded Duke roster.
Leading the Blue Devils is 18 year-old phenom Cooper Flagg. The freshman forward leads Duke in every major statistical category besides blocks in which he is second. He has put up at least 14 points, six rebounds and a block in every single game of the tournament coming off of an ankle injury in the ACC tournament. Flagg is just the tip of Duke’s iceberg though. The team is fully ready to pick up his slack. After Flagg left the first half of Duke’s ACC Quarter-Final Game against Georgia Tech, the Blue Devils went on to win not only that game but the whole tournament.
Despite concerns about Flagg’s ankle coming into the tournament, Duke has been electric. They have won their past four games by 44, 23, 7 and 20. The Blue Devils simply contain a young team loaded with talent that the veteran cougars will not be able to overcome.
Auburn falls short
Florida proved that they are the best team in the SEC by winning the conference tournament, and they will prove it again. Auburn’s shocking loss to Tennessee in the SEC tournament semi-finals was concerning. It wasn’t that their bench put up a total of three points or the stretch when they failed to score a field goal in five minutes, but their defensive shortcomings. Tennessee played like they knew they were the better team despite being outmatched on paper.
Auburn’s defense has seemingly improved since the start of the NCAA tournament. They’ve held their opponents to or under 70 points a game. However they haven’t faced a player like Florida’s star guard Walter Clayton. Clayton has been one of the best scorers in the tournament, highlighted by his 30 point performance over Texas Tech in the Elite Eight to propel the Gators to the final four. His three point shooting is deadly as he’s averaging a 45.2 three point percentage. In fact, he went five for eight from deep against UConn connecting on a staggering 62.5% of his threes.
Clayton’s offensive prowess will simply be too much for Auburn’s defense to overcome. Even worse for Tigers are lingering injuries to their star Johni Broome. The SEC player of the year missed practice on Tuesday and Wednesday leading up to Saturday’s game as a result of an awkward contest against a shot in Auburn’s game against Michigan State. If Johni Broome can not play at the top of his game, Auburn will fall.
Florida to win it all
Every one seed in the tournament has a clear path to winning the national championship. However, I think the Gators will be the team to cut the nets down in the finals in San Antonio. Houston, Auburn and Duke are all contenders to win the entire tournament, but Florida is the best overall team.
Florida has proved their dominance in this final stretch of the year. They have won 16 of their 17 last games including winning the SEC tournament. Gators coach Todd Golden has been able to establish a veteran team thanks to the transfer portal, NIL deals and Clayton’s return. This veteran status will give them the edge over the young Duke team, who I’m expecting to make it to the national championship. The average age of the Duke starters is 19.4 years old. The average age of Florida’s starters is 21.6, which is older than the average age of the starters for the Washington Wizards. Florida’s team holds experience in college basketball that Duke won’t be able to make up for.
This matchup will come down to an offensive showdown. Both teams have decent defenses, but they’re known for their offensive prowess. Florida was third across all conferences in points scored per game with 85.4. Duke was close behind coming in at ninth averaging 83.7 points per game. Across the power four conferences, Duke was fourth in scoring and Florida was second. Duke has averaged 91.75 points per game across the tournament highlighted by a 100 point win over Arizona. Florida may have only averaged 85.75 points per game, but I believe that their veteran expertise and Walter Clayton Jr.’s talent will help the Gators bring the chip home.
